While stakeholders, including the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), the Agricultural & Allied Group, and the All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN), acknowledged the positive trend in exports—which rose by 10.63% from the previous quarter—they warned that the reliance on raw commodity exports without adequate food processing infrastructure risks worsening food insecurity, especially as the lean season approaches.
Chairman of LCCI’s Agricultural & Allied Group, Tunde Banjoko, explained that the export surge was largely driven by demand for forex and industrial raw materials, such as cornflour. He noted rising prices in commodities like cashew due to strong demand, especially from Asia, and called on the Federal Government to prioritise food processing and value-added exports to ensure sustainable food security.
Banjoko confirmed predictions of rising food prices during the mid-year lean season, citing insecurity in key food-producing states and recent floods in Niger State as major disruptions to food supply. He emphasised that true food security would only be evident when market prices fall, not merely on paper.
He further cautioned that the Q1 surplus does not necessarily indicate long-term success, as agricultural imports still grew year-on-year by 12.52%. He stressed the importance of aligning imports with areas where Nigeria lacks comparative advantage, and reducing reliance on foreign sources for products the country can produce locally.
AFAN President Kabir Ibrahim echoed these concerns, advocating for support to smallholder farmers and improved data collection to capture informal trade. He praised the impact of the duty-free import window in cushioning inflation but warned that much of Nigeria’s export-import activity remains untracked due to porous borders and weak compliance systems.
While some farmers are benefiting from export demand, Ibrahim pointed out that most Nigerian farmers operate at subsistence level and are unable to benefit from market surpluses. Meanwhile, consumers continue to face high food prices.
According to the NBS, total agricultural trade in Q1 2025 stood at N2.74 trillion. Top exports included standard-quality cocoa beans (N719.91bn), superior cocoa (N508.27bn), cashew nuts in shell (N157.63bn), sesame seeds (N128.18bn), and natural cocoa butter (N80.05bn). Exports were mainly to Europe (N1.13tn) and Asia (N431.15bn). Imports included durum wheat from Russia and Argentina (N111.67bn and N47.62bn), soybeans from the U.S. and Brazil (N45.04bn and N25.71bn), and frozen mackerel from Chile (N50.08bn).
Stakeholders urged a shift from raw commodity exports to processed goods and stronger investment in local agricultural infrastructure to achieve true food security and economic resilience.
ADEOLA KUNLE
