Despite improved local refining capacity, Nigeria imported about 15.01 billion litres of petrol, representing 69 per cent of the total 21 billion litres consumed between August 2024 and early October 2025, according to data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
The figures show that total petrol supply during the 15-month period stood at 21.68 billion litres, with 6.67 billion litres (31 per cent) produced locally — mainly by the Dangote Refinery, which began operations in September 2024.
The NMDPRA’s report, titled “Import vs Domestic Supply Performance (PMS Daily Average Supply – August 2024 to October 2025)”, revealed a steady rise in domestic refining and a gradual drop in imports.
Imported petrol peaked at 54.30 million litres daily in September 2024 but declined to 24.15 million litres in January 2025, 19.26 million litres in September, and 15.11 million litres in early October 2025. Meanwhile, Dangote’s local production rose from 6.43 million litres daily in September 2024 to 22.66 million litres in January 2025, stabilising around 20 million litres per day in subsequent months.
By October 2025, domestic refining — averaging 18.93 million litres daily — surpassed imports for the first time. Total daily supply, however, dropped from 60.73 million litres in September 2024 to 34.04 million litres by October 2025, reflecting reduced consumption and fluctuating refinery output.
This decline in imports demonstrates Dangote Refinery’s growing market share despite stiff competition from importers, who accuse the refinery of undercutting prices.
The Federal Government’s deregulation of the petrol sector in September 2024 ended fuel subsidies and reshaped supply dynamics. The highest domestic output was recorded in January 2025 (22.66 million litres daily), while August 2024 saw no local production as Dangote had not commenced operations.
During the period, total imports reached 15.01 billion litres, while local production contributed 6.67 billion litres, bringing the combined supply to 21.68 billion litres.
Despite this progress, imports still dominated supply for most of the review period. Interestingly, while marketers continued to import fuel, the Dangote Refinery exported petrol, diesel, and aviation fuel to several countries, including Saudi Arabia and the U.S.
The refinery, with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, has repeatedly assured Nigerians of its ability to meet local demand. In February, Aliko Dangote confirmed that the plant had exported two cargoes of jet fuel to Saudi Aramco, while between June and July 2025, the refinery exported about one million tonnes of petrol.
Reaffirming this, Dangote Group Vice President Devakumar Edwin said, “We have more than 310 million litres of PMS in our tanks and continue to produce daily. Bring your tankers — we’ll load any number.”
NMDPRA Chief Executive Farouk Ahmed also confirmed the refinery’s impact, noting that it now supplies an average of 20 million litres of petrol daily to the Nigerian market.
The data underscores Nigeria’s ongoing transition from fuel import dependence to a more balanced structure driven by domestic refining. However, competition between importers and the refinery, along with pricing challenges, suggests full local dominance will take time.
Still, the growth in domestic output marks a major shift toward self-sufficiency, signalling the beginning of a new phase in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum industry.
ADEOLA KUNLE
