A significant drop in petrol and diesel prices is expected as global crude oil prices continue to tumble, according to petroleum marketers. However, they caution that the price reduction may not take effect immediately, as the market will first need to assess the stability of the current low prices.
Crude oil prices fell below $60 per barrel over the weekend, with Brent trading at $59.80 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) at $56.71 as of Monday. Nigeria’s major crude blends, Brass River and Qua Iboe, were priced at $64.60 per barrel — more than $10 below the Federal Government’s 2025 budget benchmark of $75. This sharp decline has raised concerns about the viability of the budget.
Despite the revenue implications for the government, Nigerians are hopeful that the price crash will lead to lower fuel costs. The prices of refined petroleum products are heavily influenced by global crude prices and foreign exchange rates.
Chinedu Ukadike, National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria (IPMAN), told The PUNCH that although a price cut is likely, it won’t happen immediately. He explained that oil speculators would first monitor the market to determine whether the decline is due to natural or artificial causes.
“If the current price fall is due to artificial factors that can be reversed, speculators will hold off. But if it remains stable over the next two weeks, we may begin to see a reduction in refined product prices,” he said.
Billy Gillis-Harry, President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlet Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN), added that many refineries had already purchased crude at higher prices before the recent slump. As a result, it would take some time for the current drop to affect fuel prices at the pump.
“There’s always existing crude stock purchased at earlier rates. So, price adjustments in retail outlets won’t be instant. Still, fluctuations in crude prices will eventually reflect in refined product costs,” Gillis-Harry said.
Oil prices dropped more than $1 per barrel on Monday following OPEC+’s decision to accelerate production increases, which sparked supply concerns amid an already uncertain demand outlook. The price drop marked the lowest level for crude since April 9.
According to Reuters, Brent fell by 8.3% and WTI by 7.5% last week, driven by Saudi Arabia’s willingness to endure a prolonged period of lower prices. These losses offset optimism surrounding potential US-China tariff talks.
OPEC+ announced on Saturday that it would increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in June. This marks the second consecutive month of accelerated output hikes. Combined increases in April, May, and June now total 960,000 barrels per day — a 44% reversal of the 2.2 million bpd cuts implemented since 2022.
Despite the growing supply and declining prices, marketers stress that Nigerians should temper expectations as market adjustments take time to reach retail levels.
