Nigeria recorded a paradox in the first half of 2025 as crude oil export earnings fell sharply despite a surge in production, according to the latest trade figures from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Between January and June 2025, crude oil exports were valued at ₦24.92tn, down from ₦28.10tn in the same period of 2024 — a loss of ₦3.18tn, representing an 11.3% year-on-year decline.
This fall came even as the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reported a 12.7% rise in crude production, from 236.7 million barrels in H1 2024 to 266.9 million barrels in H1 2025. Including condensates, total liquid output reached 303.2 million barrels.
Crude vs Non-Crude Exports
While crude exports slumped, non-crude exports surged. Non-crude oil exports jumped to ₦18.43tn in H1 2025, more than double the ₦8.79tn recorded in H1 2024. Non-oil exports alone grew 66%, from ₦3.74tn to ₦6.21tn.
Crude oil’s dominance in Nigeria’s trade profile weakened significantly, sliding from 76.2% of total exports in H1 2024 to 57.5% in H1 2025.
Trade Balance
Overall exports rose by 17.5% to ₦43.35tn, while imports grew by 6.9% to ₦30.71tn. This pushed Nigeria’s trade balance up by 54.6%, from ₦8.17tn in H1 2024 to ₦12.64tn in H1 2025.
Why the Decline in Crude Earnings?
Analysts point to weaker global oil prices, rising domestic absorption, and the government’s crude-for-naira supply arrangement with the Dangote Refinery as factors. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) sold crude worth ₦219.38bn to Dangote in the first four months of 2025, diverting volumes away from international markets.
Earlier this year, crude prices also fell below the government’s benchmark of $75 per barrel, raising concerns for the 2025 budget.
Reduced Oil Losses
On a positive note, NUPRC revealed a dramatic 50.2% reduction in crude oil losses between January and July 2025, down to 2.04 million barrels — the lowest since 2009. Losses had previously peaked at 37.6 million barrels in 2021. Officials credited regulatory reforms, security collaborations, and the Petroleum Industry Act for the progress.
Expert Views
Energy experts warn that the revenue decline could strain Nigeria’s budget.
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Prof. Dayo Ayoade of Lagos State University noted that lower prices may reduce petrol costs but could force refineries to rely on imports.
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Prof. Adeola Adenikinju of the University of Ibadan cautioned that falling oil prices would hurt budget implementation, calling it “a two-edged sword” for the economy.
Despite higher output and reduced losses, the figures highlight Nigeria’s vulnerability to global oil price swings and the urgent need to strengthen non-oil exports for long-term economic stability.
ADEOLA KUNLE
